Does engageing in risk behavior lead to decreased percieved risk?

[Ullsokk]

Hi!

I have a hypothesis that engageing in a certain risk behavior (tax evasion) leads to a decrease in the percieved risk of getting caught.

An example. Person A percieves that the risk of getting caught when evading tax is 30%. Subsequently, the person has an opportunity to evade tax. Person A decides to evade, paritally based on percieved risk. I hypothesize that Person A now feels that the risk of taking the action is lower than before (say 5%). This should especially be the case if person A is not caught.

Seems selv evident, but I want to know if there is any litterature that supports this. Tried google scholar, but couldt find exactly what I was looking for.

[psy_guy]

I figured something like that a few years ago, when I still was a kid. I agree that if you don't get caught, you won't think you can get caught, because they still didn't catch you. And since this didn't happened yet, you think there's smaller chances of it happening.

[gone]

Sorry I have only a thought. From experience. (of risk taking and not tax evasion)
Maybe time factors in to it.
For example if A got away with tax evastion then they no longer feel the high % of initial risk. But as time extends so does the chance of getting caught. They got away with it for 3 months, but the chances are they won't get away with it for a year.. So I think enter 'time' into the equasion and it re-balences the scales..  (the risk scales - not the scales of justice - or libra)

[hortonpilot]

Interesting subject?

Perception and reality.

Horton

[hortonpilot]

PM,

what bridles us is a combination of imagination and guilt.

When you know what you can do and the limitations you are in a different position to others.

Horton

[gone]

I think also what motivates risk, is not just the thrill, but curiosty, desire for experience or beliefs and so forth. It's not just about thrill seeking.

For example I remember a time I drove a car into the centre of a busy town, the vehicle had no tax, no insurance, and the cyliner head gasket had gone, although it moved it would pump out white smoke, sounded like a tank and was ready to die any moment. I knew the risk of breaking down in the centre of town was very high. But someone wanted to get to the dentist before they missed their appointment and I was only too obliging. The dentist was centre of town next to the police station, I dropped him off making his apt in time then the car died, right outside the police station.. I could have been charged with allsorts...
I knew the risks, but I also knew the worst that could happen wasn't that bad, the most I feared was the embarrasement of driving a loud car pumping out smoke..
A nice man pushed it onto a car park with me, then another nice man on the car park said he had a car for sale & gave me a lift home. When home I called a few scrap yards but they wouldn't pick it up, I called a friend, who called another and she came around with a tow rope and we towed it to where it needed to be.

Things always appear out of puffs of smoke to help you on your way.. I find it interesting.. (ps I don't and never have had a criminal record) I don't go in for crime.. but if out walking in the country, I rarely stick to the path, instead hop over fences and go explore. This is also a methaphor I use as the path is there to show the way, the way we're suppose to go (in life)..

Yes Horton, I agree it is being in a different position to others, who are controlled by fear, being able to embrace it opens up a new world. I have lots of imagination but I would only feel guilt if I hurt another person, and I wouldn't do that.. no guilty conscous!

[hortonpilot]

Most people do not understand this idea we are talking about .
Sociopaths go to the extreme end .

Fear, confidence and all manner of things limit us, some work out the limits are arbitary or placed by society.
Some a real, hot water scalds.